Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 33.215820 37.314299 42.089531 48.163235 55.835256 65.430769 78.739180
2025-05-18 27.004976 31.891451 38.115879 46.942240 59.742328 78.821758 112.445156
2025-05-25 23.411178 28.669079 35.830968 46.919687 65.095715 97.409402 173.564655
2025-06-01 20.766326 26.108139 33.756612 46.448256 69.544059 118.197416 280.991023
2025-06-08 18.762900 24.066221 31.959551 45.815868 73.430330 142.083946 503.471988
2025-06-15 17.217449 22.441867 30.467736 45.245234 77.205556 171.124454 1145.934155
2025-06-22 16.030883 21.188045 29.333736 44.994961 81.628236 210.594583 6532.955726
2025-06-29 14.919247 19.917179 27.972559 43.969218 83.760118 248.062526 NaN
2025-07-06 14.515209 19.700967 28.346736 46.502100 97.052831 392.771612 NaN
2025-07-13 13.732903 18.793551 27.376132 45.930316 100.914245 508.479925 NaN
2025-07-20 13.161160 18.177570 26.850285 46.236796 108.173752 760.140826 NaN
2025-07-27 12.671390 17.653725 26.426744 46.687294 116.617587 1309.251157 NaN
2025-08-03 12.172479 17.084917 25.872472 46.757598 124.198967 2698.801358 NaN
2025-08-10 11.640249 16.421755 25.069408 46.043334 128.038398 6343.258412 NaN
2025-08-17 11.247593 15.973486 24.643738 46.246247 137.123180 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.838827 15.469383 24.056479 45.896017 143.315037 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.446101 14.969551 23.432634 45.329410 148.099433 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.088076 14.511060 22.854728 44.794678 153.009205 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.782415 14.129586 22.405026 44.561250 160.299566 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.438467 13.661194 21.736746 43.557753 161.044735 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.380819 13.709958 22.169194 46.054162 196.060934 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.107213 13.345506 21.676628 45.493016 202.199687 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 8.909435 13.112277 21.454391 45.795479 219.379605 NaN NaN